TimmerFidelity：So far there are few signs that the second…

So far there are few signs that the second derivative in earnings estimates is slowing down. The expected growth rate for both 2026 and 2027 EPS is still advancing. https://t.co/vC6tWNnyO7

2026-10-23 00:4310818

In terms of the broader macro picture, earnings season is now upon us and with 53 companies reporting so far, we don’t really have a handle yet on how the season is going to look. But the trend remains the same: earnings are booming and valuations are coming down. https://t.co/E2kc6EP0D7

2026-10-22 20:0321421

In the grand scheme of things, the widening in high yield spreads remains well contained with few signs of contagion. Beside the parallel to telecom credit during the late 1990’s, another interesting analog might be the high yield energy blowout in 2015. Back then it was a big factor in forcing the bull market to take an 18-month long pause. The square in the chart below shows that period from October 2014 to February 2016 when equities were stuck in a range while high yield spreads soared, the Yellen Fed was attempting to lift rates off the zero bound, and the Chines Yuan was under pressure. Different circumstances from today but a reminder that bull markets can take extended pauses as they digest a variety of headwinds.

2026-10-22 10:5115517

The big news last week was of course the sharp drawdown in high yield data center bonds and what that might mean for the broader AI buildout. I have been eyeing the price analog between the AI boom today and the internet boom-turned-bust in 1998-2000 and have been comforted by the fact that earnings are so strong today that equity valuations are falling instead of rising. We can see that below. 🧵(1/3)

2026-10-22 07:1464899

The action late last week was fascinating in that the sell-off in AI names led to a move lower in bond yields. Perhaps it’s just a risk-off impulse that will soon dissipate, but perhaps the AI boom has gotten so big that it has become systemic to the economy and therefore monetary policy and inflation. 🧵(1/3)

2026-10-22 04:3619725

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