#WTI原油多空博弈加剧巨鲸分歧

WTI从7月约68美元一路抬高低点，目前已突破长期下降趋势线，来到88美元附近。 技术面转强，但88至92美元仍是密集压力区，后面能涨多高，不看需求，而看地缘风险会不会造成真实断供。 这轮上涨主要由美伊交火、油轮遇袭和霍尔木兹通行受限推动。 美国战略石油储备又处于1982年以来低位，市场重新给供应风险定价。 OPEC+计划9月增产约18.8万桶/日，但战争和运输限制可能让部分增产停留在账面，只能压制油价上限，很难立刻消除地缘溢价。 若WTI站稳90美元，通胀和加息预期可能回升，美债收益率也会承压上行，能源股相对受益，科技、消费、航空和BTC则要防美元走强与流动性收紧。 我倾向特朗普九月继续用军事施压换谈判筹码，同时推动增产控油价，他需要压制伊朗，也不希望高油价反噬通胀。 九月基准区间看82-95美元，站稳92美元且冲突升级，上看95至100美元；若谈判恢复、航道改善，则可能回落至80-83美元。 这里不适合追高，也没必要急着摸顶，等地缘溢价降温，同时技术结构转弱，再判断拐点。

MARKETS: WTI crude oil surged 5% above $90 per barrel, its highest level in about three months, following additional U.S. strikes on Iran. https://t.co/OwRA4XnZDZ

WTI crude oil has now fallen -10% from the local top. Historically, when WTI falls -10% or more in a week it has a median performance of: -0.1% over the next 7 days +1.5% over the next 30 days +9.2% over the next 90 days https://t.co/oiHwINzkEW

WTI crude oil has continued its correction and is now -16% from the local top. This is a positive sign for risk assets as inflation remains a key focus right now. It is also something the US needs badly as they have drawn down their strategic reserves to the lowest since 1982. https://t.co/2SX1ugOtJN

Hundy Roll time? $WTI https://t.co/LXb0KLccyx

WTI still looks constructive and like it wants to head higher https://t.co/z3S2WLGp1z

WTI back above $100 Not a great look going into midterms https://t.co/FZboWL9FPY

They are trying to keep WTI pinned below $100 but I think they will have trouble continuing to do so. Probably the only thing that brings oil durably down would either be an end to the war in Iran or a recession The solution to high oil prices is high oil prices https://t.co/qsuFQfRkeV