预测市场 板块
综合强度 6.4实时PREDICTION · MARKETS
加密预测市场是一个人们可以用加密货币对未来事件结果进行投注的市场。
板块表现 · 与大盘对比
板块指数(基期:2024-10-01 = 100)
3710.23+25.40% (30D)
同期 BTC 涨幅
+21.82% · 跑赢 3.6pp
加载中...
龙头分析 · Top 3 深度

Rain
RAIN · 板块占比 99.3%
$0.01633-2.85% · 24H
市值$11.58B
FDV$11.58B
换手率0%
板块占比99.3%
为什么领先:Rain 以超高市值和显著板块占比稳居龙头,说明资金与关注度高度集中。其成交活跃、流动性更强,通常更能代表预测市场整体情绪与定价方向。

Overtime
OVER · 板块占比 0.1%
$0.2269+0.67% · 24H
市值$12.46M
FDV$12.46M
换手率0%
板块占比0.1%
为什么领先:Overtime 体量虽小,但作为头部项目之一,具备更强的题材弹性和边际资金驱动。小市值属性使其在板块轮动时更容易出现超额波动与交易机会。

Opinion
OPN · 板块占比 0.1%
$0.05578-1.79% · 24H
市值$10.15M
FDV$10.15M
换手率18%
板块占比0.1%
为什么领先:Opinion 具备板块代表性与资金承接能力,是当前赛道的重要龙头观察对象。
板块成分代币
| # | 代币 | 评级 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | $1.07 | +7.04% | 0.00% | -- | $10.23K | C | |
2 | $0.00068 | +5.50% | +7.54% | $230.92K | $37.90K | B | |
3 | $0.001384 | +4.18% | 0.00% | $138.40K | $93.75 | C | |
4 | $0.0₅9372 | +3.78% | -4.56% | $9.30K | $3.58 | C | |
5 | $0.0004647 | +3.68% | +73.21% | -- | $122.17K | C | |
6 | $0.00003194 | +3.56% | +13.40% | $26.64K | $7.94 | C | |
7 | $0.0₅9928 | +3.38% | +10.23% | $9.93K | $16.37 | C | |
8 | $0.02087 | +1.14% | 0.00% | -- | $1.66 | C | |
9 | $0.2269 | +0.67% | +100.00% | $12.46M | $8.80K | C | |
10 | $0.0₅5031 | +0.20% | 0.00% | $5.03K | $1.05 | C |
投资论点 · AI 综合
看多论点 · 4
板块总市值仍处高位,说明预测市场的长期叙事没有失效。
龙头 Rain 体量最大,若资金回流,最先受益的通常还是核心资产。
小市值标的波动更大,适合在情绪修复时捕捉弹性。
PRDCTR 逆势上涨,说明板块内部仍有活跃交易和轮动机会。
看空论点 · 4
板块近7日净流出为负,说明资金面仍偏谨慎。
近24小时整体回撤,短线情绪尚未完全修复。
龙头占比过高,板块结构容易受单一资产波动影响。
小市值项目流动性有限,追高后回撤风险较大。
情绪 & KOL 立场
AI 综合情绪(最近 7D)看多 73% · 中性 9% · 看空 18%
看多 73%中性 9%看空 18%
Ansem · @blknoiz06
@blknoiz06 · 804.5K 粉丝
exciting to see polymarket enter the fold on perps their up/down crypto markets onboarded many crypto traders to prediction markets and this is the next evolution
Wu Blockchain · @WuBlockchain
@WuBlockchain · 557.2K 粉丝
Trump Jr.-Backed 1789 Capital to Add About $300M to Polymarket at $21B Valuation The Wall Street Journal reported that 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, plans to invest about $300 million more in prediction market platform Polymarket. The investment is part of a roughly $1 billion funding round led by 1789 Capital that would value Polymarket at about $21 billion. The firm had previously invested around $200 million in Polymarket and would become one of its largest backers after the new investment. Intercontinental Exchange remains Polymarket’s largest investor, having disclosed in July that its $1.6 billion stake represented about 22% of the company’s outstanding shares.
Wu Blockchain · @WuBlockchain
@WuBlockchain · 557.2K 粉丝
Polymarket Launches Perpetual Trading With Up to 20x Leverage Polymarket has launched Polymarket Perps, offering perpetual trading with up to 20x leverage on cryptocurrencies, stocks, commodities and other assets. Polymarket said the service is available internationally in jurisdictions where permitted by law.
何币 · @hebi555
@hebi555 · 408.6K 粉丝
Polymarket看来增长压力很大啊 到处在找币圈的KOL做宣发了 这货越来越像opensea了 有点慌啊
Sandeep | CEO, Polygon Foundation (※,※) · @sandeepnailwal
@sandeepnailwal · 351.0K 粉丝
Polymarket perps are here! They are not here to be one of the perps, its here to be THE PERP! Powered by Polygon!! https://t.co/kNovFKwKcu
Sandeep | CEO, Polygon Foundation (※,※) · @sandeepnailwal
@sandeepnailwal · 351.0K 粉丝
Crypto hasn't had a shiny new product for a while now and i think thats why so many people keep saying the space has gotten boring. But we already went through that phase of discovering what all of this could be used for and what came out of it is a few solid use cases, the big one being stablecoins. everything left to do from here is the unglamorous part, scaling it, making it usable and invisible for the people using it. So when someone posts a chart about how little our fees move compared to everyone else, i get why that looks boring but this is what fine tuning a payments chain looks like. no business can price a product around a cost that jumps around every time the network gets busy, and our team has been heads down on exactly this for a very long time, so shout out to them for doing such a good job! https://t.co/FljmzruObN
关键事件时间线 · 板块兴起到当前
2025-03风险点
合规与结算风险再次被关注
随着交易活跃度提升,合规、结算与市场操纵风险重新成为投资者关注焦点。
2024-10估值修复
预测市场成为加密热点赛道
在事件驱动和叙事轮动下,板块估值与关注度同步修复,成为市场重点交易主题。
2024-07机构入场
大选周期带来资金与流量
美国大选相关交易显著提升预测市场热度,资金与用户活跃度同步上行。
2023-11生态扩张
多平台竞争重塑叙事
随着更多预测市场产品出现,市场从单一平台叙事转向多协议竞争。
2021-10监管警示
监管压力抑制市场扩张
围绕事件合约与博彩属性的监管担忧升温,行业风险定价明显上升。
2020-08协议发布
Polymarket 推动链上预测市场出圈
Polymarket 以更顺滑的交易体验和更强的话题性,显著提升了行业关注度。
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