Ari Paul

Ari Paul@AriDavidPaul · 2 天前观点输出

Raves today making me feel old. https://t.co/BD6PbKtSIA

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AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。

Ari Paul@AriDavidPaul · 9 天前观点输出

Coach: sir, your seat is reclined by 2 centimeters. Fix it now or we’re dragging you off the plane. Business: Be comfortable, what else do you need? Private: you’re not traveling with anything radioactive that will blow up in the plane mid flight? Good to go. I don’t get why coach gets treated like such crap. It’s almost performative.

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AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。

Ari Paul@AriDavidPaul · 9 天前政策影响

Standard LLMs are now better than 95% of doctors in 95% of specialties. If you’re not at least comparing your doctor’s advice to an LLM, you’re leaving a lot of health on the table. In a year I expect this to change dramatically such that medical LLMs will be 10x better than any doctor if you give them enough data. The main reason - even a great doctor only looks at 1% of your health data. They’re not reviewing your blood tests from 12 years ago, nor considering subtle ethnic effects on diet and prescription medication, nor are they reviewing what your poop looked like every day for a decade. They’re not reviewing every second of HRV data from your life. IMO, in a year or less, smart people will be photographing their poop and meals and wearing something like an Oura ring, and feeding that second by second data and images and every medical test you’ve ever taken into an LLM and getting incredible medical advice.

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AI：偏政策推进，强调合规落地与规则明晰，对监管主线更敏感。

Ari Paul@AriDavidPaul · 9 天前赛道影响

Next time I need to fundraise for something, I’m pulling the Leone-SBF combo: going to pitch over zoom from a dentist’s chair while getting a root canal with no anesthetic. Will add a following drone camera so the meeting can continue while I run from the chair faster than Dustin Hoffman in Marathon Man.

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AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。

Ari Paul@AriDavidPaul · 10 天前赛道影响

It’s kind of wild that there’s no clearly functioning quantum computer a decade after dozens of papers and tens of billions raised claiming working quantum computers. There’s an entire industry of quantum optimization claiming working software. All smoke and mirrors as far as I can tell.

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AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。

Ari Paul@AriDavidPaul · 10 天前赛道影响

We’re living in such odd bubbles. You’ve got good chunks of the world obsessing over the definition of a woman or who has sovereignty over the falklands or what a lake should be called. And the world is being transformed before our eyes. The birth of the first new form of intelligence, new cancer cures weekly, computers built purely out of neurons. Neural imaging that lets us literally read minds. Century old fundamental math problems falling daily. What a time to be alive.

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AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。

Ari Paul@AriDavidPaul · 10 天前观点输出

We’re all stoned apes. Go outside and climb a tree. Literally. https://t.co/wmdBhFzRlB

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AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。

Ari Paul@AriDavidPaul · 11 天前赛道影响

My favorite use of AI today is having it teach me random stuff. I considered myself a world class speed researcher on random topics. I was adept at going Wikipedia-> expert summaries -> peer reviewed papers or even raw data. I could do that quickly and accurately. AI eats my lunch 100x at this. Now I prompt, “I’m eager to learn about neuromodulation. I am starting with no knowledge except a half remembered high school education on biology and neuroscience. Write me a 30 page paper with the following components. The first page should be a simple summary, defining key terms, context. Pages 2-8: give me a breakdown of the field by branch or topic, with summaries of each branch and an example of the medical or commercial applications of each. Pages 8-22: now go into intermediate depth. Assume my knowledge level is of a beginning grad student in this area. Teach me as much as you can about the topic both in terms of the fundamental science, and its practical applications, in these 14 pages. Pages 23-26: List the key individuals and companies recently and currently operating in this field with a brief summary of each. Pages 27-30: Provide the most credible contrarian arguments to everything you wrote in pages 2-22: Which facts and statements that you’ve given me are most likely to be wrong and why? That consistently produces a great intro for me. At the end of that paper, I can usually identify obvious next steps, usually a list of terms or concepts I need to better understand that I follow up on. Or maybe I just reach out to an expert at that stage. At least I’ll have intelligent questions for them now and understand some of the jargon they reply with.

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AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。

Ari Paul@AriDavidPaul · 11 天前赛道影响

Gambling addiction is a huge and pernicious problem in the US. I was a college student during the poker boom around ~2004. A dozen of the Penn undergrads I played with ruined a chunk of their lives falling into addiction. This included some of the brightest academic superstars (and some of the best poker players in the school.) I had moments of “degeneracy” but never fell down the slope into the chasm. I was never drawn to volatility for its own sake; I needed to think I had “edge” in every bet, and was honest enough with myself to not fool myself for very long when that wasn’t the case. For many others, they craved the “gamble” itself. The common pattern was first they’d chase the allure of easy money and quick ego wins. As losses accumulated, that turned into deceptive behavior, to their families and friends…and to themselves. In the most extreme cases, stealing from friends and family. The reality is that 95%+ of gamblers (including poker players) lose. The house’s small edge adds up bet after bet eventually leaving most bettors with nothing. How did I do in poker? My headline results were good for an amateur college student. I made $25k a year doing it as a hobby in college. But…that “hobby” cost me ~500 hours a year; while my parents paid for an elite and expensive college. A pretty bad return on time in my context. I installed software that tracked my poker results closely in my last year. The astounding result - I made $30k in profit…while paying online casinos $120k in rake. In hindsight, I’d still have played poker, but I’d have cut the hours by 90%. Poker taught me a ton about game theory, probability, psychology, and…life. It led directly to my first (great) job out of college at a trading firm. But all of that good came from the first 100 hours. I wasn’t learning or gaining anything playing for the 16th hour straight at 3 am. Celebrating degeneracy is either cope, or just marketing for the casino. https://t.co/n8R6XHfZNI

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AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。

Ari Paul@AriDavidPaul · 14 天前政策影响

Only if they get to act like a cartel which requires government regulation. Otherwise, competition forces them to increase housing supply. Whenever you have dozens of competing suppliers, with no single supplier having >30% of the market, they can’t benefit from reducing supply. It’s a classic prisoner’s dilemma. In theory they might win to reducing supply, just like labor might win to demanding higher wages in aggregate. But there is no aggregate without government intervention. Union laws force joint negotiating in some areas for labor. Nothing like that exists for landlords, so they compete tooth and nail to maximize earnings, which means putting everything on market that they can. Exceptions are rare and irrelevant in aggregate. Why is there a housing affordability crisis? Because NIMBY’ism and government regulation have blocked/reduced housing construction.

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AI：偏政策推进，强调合规落地与规则明晰，对监管主线更敏感。