Dovey Wan

Dovey Wan@DoveyWan · 4 天前观点输出

need to decouple domestic vs offshore re the Japanification parallel. net overseas assets is ~80% of Japan's GDP now a structural shift compared to the 90s. most of japs' internationals co's overseas subsidiaries flip their parent revenues (over 70% rev share) GDP is itself is a bad metric imo.

AI：偏平台经营与生态扩张，强调交易平台和应用入口的长期位置。

Dovey Wan@DoveyWan · 4 天前赛道影响

China macro is turning into an extreme dispersion trade. Headline GDP is becoming almost useless.. Japanification, but with geographic arbitrage both domestically and internationally is my closest mental model for what comes next Maybe this is what the last inning of industrial and geopolitical catch-up looks like: hyper-competitiveness abroad, household retrenchment at home. Export strength no longer translates cleanly into household income or confidence; youth unemployment remains elevated at ~16%, even after excluding students. China may be entering a long cycle of Japanification, but with much more room for geographic arbitrage, both within China and across its supply chains. Externally, China looks almost unstoppable: June exports +27% YoY, H1 high-tech manufacturing +13.3%, IC manufacturing +67.3%. Manufacturing PMI crawled back above 50. AI-linked demand and high-end exports are doing the heavy lifting. But some of this demand is borrowed from the future. AI capex is partly a game of musical chairs and future capacity lock-in, while the export surge contains tariff front-loading. Neither is a durable substitute for domestic consumption. Inside China, the picture is almost inverted. Retail sales fell 0.6% YoY in May and grew only 1.0% in June. H1 fixed-asset investment fell 5.7%, property investment fell 18%, and new-home sales value fell 13.6%. The price chain does not look good either: producer input prices +6.4%, factory-gate prices +4.1%, CPI only +1.0%. Costs are moving downstream much faster than consumer pricing power. Many downstream firms have to absorb the gap through thinner margins, intensifying the rat race. Even consumption itself is dispersing. Urban retail was -0.9% in May vs rural +1.5%; in June, +0.8% vs +2.1%. But rural outlets are only ~14% of total retail, and the rural print is policy-sensitive, wont be able to carry the entire economy Japan after the 1980s bubble offers a strong parallel: stagnation from the early 1990s, then persistent deflation from the late 1990s into the early 2010s. But China has a continental shock absorber Japan never had at this scale: a vast interior homeland where housing and daily life are far cheaper, while infra and digital services have narrowed the quality of life gap with tier 1 cities. The option to leave tier 1 cities and return home has become a popular choices for many, this can lower household burn rates and may soften the social transmission of stagnation Writing this, NF’s Hope started playing in my head: Thirty years of running, thirty years of searching Thirty years of hurting, thirty years of pain For China, make it almost fifty. Almost fifty years of running from scarcity since Reform and Opening, searching for modernity, and avg citizens absorbing the pain of remaking an entire society at impossible speed Maybe that is the eternal paradox of industrial catch-up: a country can arrive frontier before its people feel they have.

AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。

Dovey Wan@DoveyWan · 5 天前赛道影响

Open weights don’t need full parity with frontier labs. They only need what I call “pleb parity”: get close enough on high-value, high-volume task at a time, so 20 specialized plebs can divide the work and level the game against one elite. When you have a gang of equally talented, frugal and relentless Chinese AI founders, who stays #1 on the leaderboard matters less. What matters is that whenever one falls behind, another open-weight peer fills the gap very soon My simple mental model for Anthropic/OpenAI’s future ARR is the frontier-call ratio: Across an end-to-end business outcome, what % of steps still MUST call the most expensive frontier model? As plebs pushes that ratio down, pricing power and future ARR growth expectations get eroded. Think of the most elite revenue-generating team inside a company. How many seats truly need to be filled by Ivy/Stanford grads? AI stacks will look the same: frontier intelligence for the key steps where it materially changes the outcome; open weights everywhere else. The only domains I can think of with a real case for unlimited frontier-token budgets 1) Quant trading, mm and pod shops: RenTech, Jane Street, Point72 etc where raw intellectual horsepower can be translated directly into P&L 2) Ultra-high-stakes discovery: next-gen chips and materials, cancer drugs, etc. But even there, the upside/scale is limited by the even more scarce giga brain human minds to define the right problem and know where to tinker, not by token or compute For the rest of the world, and most knowledge-work domains, pleb parity is probably the long-term equilibrium. Long live the plebs. Kudos to every Chinese AI founder and engineer working against the odds to make it happen

AI：偏平台经营与生态扩张，强调交易平台和应用入口的长期位置。

Dovey Wan@DoveyWan · 7 天前赛道影响

I dont think the world can ever take China out of the global supplychain, now even more so in mid to high end (energy & industrial too, china now supplies large portion of energy and electricity to where the marginal new manufacturing capacity are moving into ie Viet etc ). If the actual market equilibrium is never China vs. US winner-take-all but a global level coopetition. So relative-value trade on how quickly that valuation spread converges is the highest ev

AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。

Dovey Wan@DoveyWan · 7 天前赛道影响

again if you take side on the 🇨🇳 China (Scaling Supremacy) vs 📷 USA (Emerging Supremacy) is a terrible investor mindset.. the winning mental model is a spread trade: when Zhipu and Minimax IPO'ed at 1/100 of anthropic and OAI price is no brainer to long the spread convergence

AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。

Dovey Wan@DoveyWan · 9 天前赛道影响

Glad crypto has trained me be extremely vigilant on this. From kichim premium in every crypto cycle now to memory stocks, Korea may be one of the cleanest late cycle indicators in global riskon assets. not just because Kr retail is exuberant degens, more on the market structure itself fuels retail heat even more Korea launched single-stock leveraged products on May 27, after the move had already gone vertical, local kr retail flood into it at peak narrative velocity vs investors in the HK-listed leveraged product still had months of upside cushion When a crowded national equity market adds leverage to its hottest stock after the reflexive phase begun, the product launch itself makes the formation of topping signal This happens every time in crypto cycle as well when local Korean exchanges listed assets mostly after they have gone up parabolic in global exchanges elsewhere, making poor korean retail as the last exit liquidity ..

AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。

Dovey Wan@DoveyWan · 12 天前观点输出

😭 KOSPI down ~27% and SK Hynix down ~38% since this tweet .. kimchi capital market late night parties roll the same every time, stay safe my friends

AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。

Dovey Wan@DoveyWan · 14 天前观点输出

@EvgenyGaevoy absolutely bullish on founders who marry to collage sweethearts!! have many kids and grandkids down the life arc :)

AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。

Dovey Wan@DoveyWan · 15 天前赛道影响

This principle applies to China/Korea/Japan/Vietnam/SG and other developed or sizable Asian markets. Over time, CN and KR users have become more utility and novelty driven, especially younger cohorts. But Japanese users are probably the most trust-resistant cohort.. you can still have a 5/10 product with a crappy user experience, but if you crack the trust layer, they may stick with it for a decade. That’s also why Japan remains one of the most cash and bank-transfer adherent developed nations on earth lol

AI：偏主题投资表达，释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。

Dovey Wan@DoveyWan · 15 天前观点输出

@hieronimoos pray this is the first sell off 😤 be openminded to the upside but margin-managed for the downside

AI：延续个人公开立场，强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。