Shreyas Hariharan@HelloShreyas · 2026/04/15赛道影响RT @khushii_w: Polymarket (@Polymarket) and Kalshi (@Kalshi) have rolled out new guardrails to curb insider trading.
Months ago, Shreyas (…
AI:偏主题投资表达,释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。
Shreyas Hariharan@HelloShreyas · 2026/04/10观点输出Will be interesting to track this!
AI:延续个人公开立场,强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
Shreyas Hariharan@HelloShreyas · 2026/04/10观点输出RT @michael_lwy: 6 new reads added to the https://t.co/WyDgP0juTe
1. States vs. Prediction Markets: The Fight Over the Meaning of 'Swap'
@…
AI:延续个人公开立场,强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
Shreyas Hariharan@HelloShreyas · 2026/04/08赛道影响@TheTakenUser Why do you think there’s thin volume?
I understand retail demand for this maybe low but there are so many ways to hedge or express stock views through these markets
AI:偏主题投资表达,释放对基础设施与新叙事的偏多信号。
Shreyas Hariharan@HelloShreyas · 2026/04/08政策影响My best guess is these markets could be considered securities or derivatives of securities, so the CFTC maybe cautious
AI:偏政策推进,强调合规落地与规则明晰,对监管主线更敏感。
Shreyas Hariharan@HelloShreyas · 2026/04/08观点输出It would be useful to break down the stock of a company into its component parts and have prediction markets on them:
- Earnings
- Products sold
- Headcount
- Compute spend
- FDA approval
Why are there such few markets on this and why don't they have volume?
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Shreyas Hariharan@HelloShreyas · 2026/04/08观点输出https://t.co/HZPQyNWJJB
AI:延续个人公开立场,强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
Shreyas Hariharan@HelloShreyas · 2026/04/07观点输出“Don’t judge a book by its cover” -> everyone judges books by their cover
“Don’t focus on status” -> everyone is obsessed with status
“Be yourself” -> everyone is performing
All advice is a confession about human nature - that the opposite behavior is near-universal
AI:延续个人公开立场,强调长期主义、执行效率与行业方向判断。
Shreyas Hariharan@HelloShreyas · 2026/04/06政策影响My assessment: Supreme Court will side with Kalshi and CFTC
The definition of ‘swap’ in the Dodd Frank was intentionally broad
Unlike the PASPA case, there's now a federal body (CFTC) that has a clear mandate to regulate swaps. So federal preemption supersedes states' rights
AI:偏政策推进,强调合规落地与规则明晰,对监管主线更敏感。
Shreyas Hariharan@HelloShreyas · 2026/04/06政策影响The case will likely make it to Supreme Court but it cuts across typical ideological viewpoints
- Conservative justices are textual originalists, which favors Kalshi since the swap definition is broad. But they are also committed to states’ rights, which favors the states.
- Liberal justices are typically pro-federal regulatory authority but skeptical of financial industry arguments and sympathetic to consumer protection.
AI:偏政策推进,强调合规落地与规则明晰,对监管主线更敏感。
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