On-Chain Events Calendar (Issue 5 · Week 28, 2026)

01Important Events of Today

On July 9, the CFTC chairman explicitly predicted that the market would move away from regulatory gray areas. Meanwhile, $1.4 billion in crypto-related revenues drew attention at hearings, putting the CLARITY bill in an ethical dilemma. On the same day, Injective swiftly removed the compromised npm package and confirmed no financial losses, whereas a vulnerability in the Move virtual machine exposed a risk exposure of $70 billion. Additionally, a vice president at Strive proposed a new framework, suggesting that $1 trillion in funds might flow into the Bitcoin market due to break-even yield strategies.

02Token Unlock Reminder

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-12

The overall stress rating for token unlocks this week (2026-W27) is medium, with the peak unlocking dates falling on 2026-07-12. The market sentiment index is in the fear range (40/100), and combined with the slight decline of 0.4% in BTC’s current price at $63,848.00, this volatile market condition may amplify short-term volatility risks due to unlocked selling pressure.

ONDO will release 1.03% of its tokens over the weekend. Given the shallow market depth and limited liquidity at that time, it could exacerbate downward price pressure. STRK will unlock 0.97% of its tokens on Monday morning, during a period of high trading activity, resulting in higher short-term volatility risks. Investors should closely monitor the on-chain transaction data and exchange net inflows for these two projects to assess the actual scale of selling pressure.

03Macroeconomic Calendar

As of 2026-07-12, the total global cryptocurrency market value stood at $2.28 trillion, with BTC holding a 56.3% dominance rate. This week’s macroeconomic and regulatory developments focused on shifts in institutional behavior patterns and the implementation of compliance frameworks.

Firstly, MicroStrategy broke its “never sell crypto” rule on 07-08. To cope with pressure from preferred stock dividends, it optimized its accounting classifications, resulting in actual sales exceeding 3 billion dollars. By transforming into an active hedge fund, it marked a shift from passive holding to active management, thereby reshaping market expectations regarding selling pressure. Secondly, Ripple received approval from Luxembourg’s CSSF for a CASP license under the MiCA framework on 07-06. This allows it to operate across all 30 countries in the European Economic Area without having to apply separately, paving the way for the practical use of XRP and collaborations related to the digital euro. Additionally, the SEC is reevaluating the risks associated with retail-oriented innovative ETFs and may tighten access requirements. Meanwhile, BlackRock recommends including Bitcoin in investment portfolios, but its capital flows could potentially become a source of selling pressure during market rebounds.

04Operation suggestions

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-12

Operational Recommendations

• Liquidity Management Amid Extreme Emotional Reversals (Time Frame: This Week) Given the sharp fluctuations in the market sentiment index within a very short period—rising from 14.2 to 36.0 points, reaching a neutral level of 50.1, and then dropping sharply from 51.8 to 36.2 points due to fear [Source], the market is currently in a phase of high volatility and consensus divergence. If the current BTC price of $63,848.00 breaks below key support levels and 24-hour trading volume of $14.6B shows abnormal decline, indicating insufficient liquidity to absorb market moves, it is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy and avoid buying into false breaks as sentiment rapidly shifts from fear back to neutral.

• Position Adjustment When Whale Activity Surges (Time Frame: Next 2 Weeks) An abrupt increase of 46 points and 60 points in whale activity on the blockchain suggests that large amounts of capital are entering the market or repositioning [Source]. If the current ETH price of $1,789.16 fails to break through resistance levels during periods of high whale activity, and the sentiment gap among KOLs remains high at 70% bullish vs. 15% bearish [Source], be cautious of the risk of “all good news already priced in” or manipulation by major players. It is advised to build positions gradually or hold onto existing holdings while waiting for concrete confirmation of whale actions, rather than making bullish bets based solely on KOL sentiment.

• Risk Avoidance Before Specific Tokens Are Unlocked (Time Frame: This Month) Although ONDO and STRK are the main tokens under close monitoring this period, caution is needed to prevent a repeat of the supply shock caused by the unlocking of over $241 million in tokens from June 22 to 28 [Source]. For small-to-mid cap tokens with large-scale unlocking plans in the near future (such as ASTER at $104 million and ZK at $1.85 million), if their prices rise by more than 10% in the week before unlocking without a corresponding increase in trading volume, it is recommended to gradually reduce holdings to avoid potential selling pressure on the day of unlocking.

Risk Warnings

• Risk of Distorted Sentiment Indicators The market sentiment index experienced extreme fluctuations in both directions within 24 hours (+36.0 points and -15.6 points). If the index fails to stabilize within the neutral range (40–60) and is accompanied by persistently high whale activity, it could trigger severe market volatility. Warning trigger: The sentiment index remains in extreme zones of fear (<40) or greed (>60) for 4 consecutive hours.

• Risk of Chain-Reaction Selling Pressure from Unlocks This week, ONDO will release 1.03% of its tokens, and STRK will release 0.97%. Although the pressure rating for these unlocks is considered medium, if combined with the simultaneous unlocking of tokens from other projects such as ASTER and ZK on July 17, it may lead to overall tight liquidity in the market. Warning trigger: The price of the main tokens under unlocking drops by more than 5% within 24 hours after unlocking, and 24-hour trading volume across the network declines by more than 10% on a weekly basis.

• Risk of Whales’ Actions Contradicting Market Trends Whale activity surges by 60 points, but KOL sentiment shifts sharply toward bullishness (a gap of +85.0 percentage points). If prices fail to rise in line with whale movements and instead show stagnation or decline, it may indicate that whales are selling off or engaging in hedging strategies. Warning trigger: Whale activity remains high, but BTC and ETH prices drop by more than 3% simultaneously.