On-Chain Events Calendar (Issue 13 · Week 29, 2026)

01Important Events of Today

On July 16, 2026, the head of Coinbase revealed that an AI agent had independently completed a payment of $24 million, marking a new phase for the agent economy and demonstrating the feasibility of decentralized automated trading. On the same day, Bitcoin dropped 14% in the second quarter to $58,000, but long-term holders increased their holdings to 14.85 million coins, hitting a record high and indicating seller fatigue in the market. Additionally, U.S. tech stocks experienced widespread declines, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index entering bear market territory. Nvidia’s market value was overtaken by Apple, while major global stock indices all fell simultaneously.

02Token Unlock Reminder

The following data was collected by the system, showing a total of 15 token unlocking records.

03Macroeconomic Calendar

As of July 18, 2026, there is a significant correlation between the macroeconomy and the crypto market. The pullback in traditional tech stocks and divergent behaviors among long-term Bitcoin holders have become the key focus points this week.

1. Collective pullback in U.S. tech stocks, pressure on semiconductor sector On July 16, 2026, U.S. tech stocks experienced a collective pullback, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping into bear market territory. Key stocks such as NVIDIA and SpaceX saw sharp declines, with SpaceX’s stock price halving and facing selling pressure from unlocked shares. This round of adjustments reflects rising market deleveraging sentiment, putting pressure on the valuation of the tech sector. Major global stock indices also declined, leading to a significant weakening of market sentiment.

2. Bitcoin drops 14% in Q2; long-term holders increase holdings to record highs On July 16, 2026, Bitcoin fell 14% in Q2 to $58,000, but long-term holders increased their holdings to 14.85 million coins, hitting a new record high, indicating seller fatigue. Despite the price pressure, core investors remain confident, supporting the long-term value of the industry. Ethereum faces a critical resistance level, with potential liquidation amounts exceeding $1 billion, keeping market sentiment cautious.

3. Bitcoin miners increase reserves against the trend; P/E ratio declines On July 15, 2026, despite deteriorating profits, Bitcoin miners increased their reserves by 1% to 1.1943 million coins. Although this move was influenced by industry concerns such as the P/E ratio falling to 0.71 and a 5% reduction in mining difficulty, it helped curb selling pressure and provided potential support for a price rebound.

04Operation suggestions

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-18

Operational Recommendations

1. Liquidity Management to Address Short-Term Selling Pressure (Time Frame: This Week) With intensive token unlocks scheduled for July 22–23 (involving projects such as RIVER, MBG, ZORA, SOON, APR, etc., with a total value exceeding $20 million), short-term supply pressure in the market is significantly rising. If the support level below the current BTC price of $63,921.00 breaks down and 24-hour trading volume drops below $28.2B, indicating insufficient buying interest, it is recommended to adopt a cautious defense strategy for non-core holdings by gradually reducing exposure to mitigate the liquidity shock caused by these unlocks.

2. Taking Contrarian Positions by Leveraging Extreme Market Sentiment (Time Frame: Next 2 Weeks) The current market sentiment index stands at 43/100 (fear), and recent data shows a sharp rise in Whale activity levels by 46–60 points, suggesting that sophisticated investors might be accumulating assets at lower prices. If the sentiment index falls further below 30, accompanied by a shift in KOL opinions from bearish to bullish (e.g., a change in the bullish-bearish gap of over +50 percentage points), this could signal a short-term bottom. It is advised to build positions in BTC and ETH in phases to capture excess returns arising from sentiment-driven mispricings.

3. Monitoring Structural Opportunities Driven by Regulatory Tailwinds (Time Frame: This Month) Ripple received a CASP license under Luxembourg’s MiCA framework on July 6, unlocking access to markets in 30 European countries. If the current XRP price of $1.09 breaks through key resistance levels and 24-hour trading volume increases to above $1.0B, it indicates that institutional funds are starting to respond positively to these regulatory benefits. It is recommended to increase XRP holdings appropriately to seize value revaluation opportunities after regulatory implementation, while closely tracking subsequent developments regarding the European digital euro initiative.

Risk Warnings

1. Risk of Selling Pressure from Large-Scale Token Unlocks The concentrated unlocking of tokens from multiple projects on July 22–23 may lead to severe price volatility if overall market trading volume fails to remain at the current level of $65.7B. Warning triggers include a drop of more than 10% in the relevant token prices on the day of unlocking, coupled with a decline in overall market trading volume.

2. Risk of Extreme Reversals in Market Sentiment The sentiment index has fluctuated sharply recently (rising from 14.2 to 50.1 before falling back to 43). If the sentiment index drops again by more than 15 points without a corresponding increase in Whale activity, it may signal the onset of another downward trend. Warning triggers include a sustained drop in the sentiment index below 30 for over 24 hours.

3. Risk of Compliance and Legal Uncertainty Despite Ripple’s positive development, projects like Pump.fun still face compliance-related legal challenges. If major exchanges remove these tokens or restrict trading due to regulatory pressures, it could trigger localized liquidity crises. Warning triggers include announcements from major exchanges regarding token removals or trading restrictions.