On-Chain Events Calendar (Issue 16 · Week 30, 2026)

01Important Events of Today

On July 18, 2026, volatile prices of Bitcoin led to liquidations worth over $72 million across the entire market, with short positions accounting for more than 60% of these transactions, highlighting the risks associated with high-leverage trading. On the same day, Hut 8 signed an AI data center contract with IREN, driving the stock price of mining companies to soar by more than 11% in a single day and accelerating the industry’s transformation toward AI infrastructure. On July 19, 2026, Lookonchain detected 10,000 ETH (worth approximately $18.6 million) being withdrawn from Binance and immediately locked up as collateral, signaling institutional bullish sentiment in the long term.

02Token Unlock Reminder

The following data was collected by the system, showing a total of 15 token unlocking records.

03Macroeconomic Calendar

As of July 21, 2026, there is a structural divergence in macroeconomic conditions and on-chain capital flows. Regulatory compliance efforts are accelerating, with Grayscale planning to revise its trust agreement around August 7 to switch from issuing ETH and SOL collateral rewards as tokens to cash quarterly disbursements, in order to comply with IRS regulations and simplify the process by which investors receive their earnings. Supply-side pressures are significant, as projects such as LayerZero and KAITO unlocked assets worth over $30 million this week. Between July 20 and 25 alone, multiple projects unlocked assets totaling over $76 million, with ZRO having the highest single-day release volume, putting the market under short-term selling pressure. Additionally, Arbitrum unlocked 92.65 million ARB tokens on July 16, worth approximately $8.53 million. Despite this increase in supply, rising long positions in derivatives and the return of fees to Robinhood Chain indicate that market sentiment remains optimistic.

04Operation suggestions

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-21

Operational Recommendations

1. Liquidity Protection for Projects with High Selling Pressure (This Week) With over $76 million in tokens set to unlock across multiple projects this week (from July 20 to 25, 2026), and ZRO accounting for the largest single-day release volume, the market faces significant selling pressure. It is recommended to adopt a cautious defensive strategy for positions holding tokens with high unlocking proportions, such as ZRO, TIA, and EIGEN. If the price of these tokens drops below recent support levels around the unlocking dates, accompanied by abnormally high 24-hour trading volumes (more than 20% above the average), it is advisable to reduce holdings in stages to avoid liquidity shocks and prevent being forced to buy at peak selling times.

2. Taking Advantage of Extreme Market Sentiment for Strategic Investing (Next 2 Weeks) The current market sentiment index stands at 37/100, indicating a fearful mood. Additionally, there have been signs of a sharp increase in Whale activity on the blockchain, rising by 46–60 points, suggesting that large funds may be accumulating assets at lower prices. It is recommended to pay attention to mainstream assets such as BTC (current price: $65,194.00) and ETH (current price: $1,901.72). If BTC stabilizes around $65,000 with 24-hour trading volumes remaining above $32.4B, consider building positions in phases. This strategy aims to capitalize on the divergence between market panic and signals of Whale entry, seizing rebound opportunities as sentiment improves. However, strict stop-loss measures should be implemented to guard against further deterioration in sentiment.

3. Locking in Profits Before the Implementation of Staking ETF Policies (This Month) Grayscale plans to amend its trust agreement around August 7, changing staking rewards for ETH and SOL to cash payouts on a quarterly basis. This change could affect holders’ expectations regarding staking yields and the short-term supply and demand dynamics of these tokens. It is recommended to reassess staking positions in ETH (current price: $1,901.72) and SOL (current price: $77.73) before August 7. If price volatility increases due to uncertainty ahead of the policy’s implementation (e.g., daily price swings exceeding 3%), consider adjusting the staking ratio slightly and converting some holdings to spot assets to maintain flexibility. A long-term staking strategy can then be determined after the new reward distribution mechanism takes effect.

Risk Warnings

1. Risk of Concentrated Unlocking and Selling Pressure This week, the unlocking volume for tokens like ZRO exceeds $76 million, while projects such as TIA and EIGEN have high unlocking proportions (3.18% and 4.05%, respectively). If market demand fails to keep up, it could lead to sharp declines in the prices of these tokens. Warning trigger: A drop of more than 5% in the price of relevant tokens on the day of unlocking, coupled with a surge in trading volume.

2. Risk of Extreme Volatility in Market Sentiment The market sentiment index is currently in the fearful range of 37/100, with conflicting signals including a sudden drop of 15.6 points in the sentiment index alongside rising Whale activity. This inconsistency may indicate uncertainty about market direction, posing a risk of severe fluctuations. Warning trigger: The sentiment index falling further below 30, or Whale activity continuing to rise without a corresponding price rebound.

3. Risk of Uncertainty Related to Policy Implementation Grayscale’s plan for cash payouts via ETH/SOL staking ETFs is expected to take effect on August 7. There is uncertainty regarding the final details of the policy and market reactions, which could lead to short-term arbitrage activities or adjustments in portfolio holdings. Warning trigger: Abnormal price fluctuations in ETH or SOL without fundamental support within one week before the policy takes effect (e.g., daily price changes exceeding 4%).