#美联储官员鹰派发言推高10月加息预期

Jackson Hole is next week. New Fed Chair’s first keynote. Stocks, bonds, and bitcoin will reprice in the same hour. Your broker will send a statement in 30 days, but @cfosilvia sees your accounts in real-time. Connect them before the speech: https://t.co/587F3GzJzR

🚨 ONE OF THE BIGGEST MACRO EVENTS OF THE YEAR IS 5 DAYS AWAY. 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole: Friday, August 28, 10:00 AM ET. Current policy: 3.50%-3.75% IF WARSH SIGNALS CUTS → MARKETS RALLY HARD IF WARSH STAYS HAWKISH → MARKETS DUMP HARD IF WARSH GIVES NOTHING → EXPECT CHOP

Here's what to be ready for this week 👇 All Week: -Fed officials speaking Monday: -Strategy 8-K filing Wednesday: -US PCE July -US Q2 GDP growth rate (2nd estimate) -US personal income/spending July -NVDA earnings Thursday: -Jackson Hole central bank symposium begins Friday: -Fed chair Warsh speech -US preliminary annual non-farm payrolls revision

This framework is clearly supported by the Taylor Rule, which is saying that those last few rate cuts were unwarranted and need to be undone. Will the Fed listen to its own rule? We’ll find out in September, but both the SOFR curve and Kalshi prediction markets express doubts that it will. If so, the long end will likely do the Fed’s work for it.

🇺🇸 The Fed quietly became the dominant landlord of a very specific neighborhood in the bond market, owning 50%+ of all Treasuries maturing in 10-15 years. When one buyer controls half a segment, real price discovery basically ghosts the chat. And unwinding that is enormously painful. Years of QE built this. Now they're stuck holding the bag they packed themselves. Source:@zerohedge/ Writer: Oliver

Gas is $4.10 a gallon. And the Fed is telling you it might not get better. Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, said that he's not feeling confident inflation is coming back down anytime soon. We've been hearing "just one more year" for five years straight now. The war in the Gulf isn't just a headline anymore, it's showing up in your grocery bill, your gas tank, and your rent. And one of the people actually in charge of fixing this just admitted he doesn't know when it ends. Image: AAA

2/3 Bond buybacks, yield curve control, and/or QE (or "QE-lite") all expand the Fed's balance ("money printing"). When inflation is the worry, money printing means bonds sell off. How Bessent is doing it is not the problem. Doing it with inflation means it will not work. https://t.co/8wgAv709sH

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Fed to inject $5,179,000,000 into the economy today.

Odds that the Fed leaves rates unchanged in September have risen to 65% after the July CPI data came in exactly as forecast. https://t.co/fgLHFpoo8y

A lot of people still think the Fed's next move is a cut. Futures are close to a coin flip on a hike next month instead. Higher rates would be bad for stocks.

The U.S. Core CPI dropped to 2.5%, its lowest level in 5 months. The odds of a Fed rate hike have now dropped from 54% to just 38%. The Fed cares more about Core CPI because it excludes short-term price swings in food and energy. Bullish for markets 🚀

CPI eased to 3.4% in July (from 3.5%), but core inflation's still stuck at 2.5%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Add last week's weak jobs report to the mix, and the Fed's September call is looking like hike vs. hold, not hike vs. cut.

🇺🇸 THE PROBABILITY OF A FED RATE HIKE HAS DROPPED TO 40% AFTER CPI DATA CAME IN AS EXPECTED. Last month, the Fed paused rates and markets went sideways. This time: IF FED HIKE RATES → MARKETS WILL CRASH IF FED PAUSE RATES → MARKETS WILL SLIGHTLY PUMP IF FED CUT RATES → MARKET WILL PUMP HARD

🇺🇸 NOW: The odds of a Fed rate hike in September fell to 40.1%, down from 48.4% a day ago, per CME FedWatch.

Me on @BloombergTV talking about the Fed and inflation. https://t.co/kRJBaRWKYk

For those who want to be bullish on bonds, do you really want the Fed to NOT hike rates in September? Consider: The red line is the probability of a Fed hike on September 16th. It was above 100% until the July 29th FOMC meeting. It dived at that meeting, also dived on the employment report on August 7th, and on the CPI report this morning. It is currently 39%. The blue line is the 30-year yield. When the probability of a hike was over 100%, this 30-year yield was 5.08%. Now that the probability of a rate hike has declined to 39%, the 30-year yield is 16 basis points higher at 5.24%. See the thread below showing the same relationship has been in place for almost two years.

THIS IS HUGE 🇺🇸 Fed rate hike odds have dropped to 32% now No rate hike means crypto could pump

Odds that the Fed raises rates in September have fallen to 31% following today's PPI data. https://t.co/8NrIg4q1hZ

Forget about what Warsh says; pay attention to what the Fed does. The Fed's balance sheet expanded by $11.388 billion last week. If the Fed was serious about its 2% target, it would be shrinking its balance sheet. While Warsh talks about fighting inflation the Fed is creating it.

🐋 WHALE WATCH :RATE HIKE ODDS ARE COLLAPSING. Markets now price just 32.1% odds of a September Fed hike. CPI came in line with expectations while PPI came in cooler than expected. Thats a much friendlier setup for risk assets. If rate hike expectations keep falling does$BTCfinally get the macro tailwind its been waiting for ?

Inflation has averaged 4% over the past 65 months. Under Powell, to make up for past inflation being too low, the Fed adopted a policy of targeting an average inflation rate of 2%. Consistent with that policy we now need 0% inflation for 65 months to bring the average down to 2%.

"If oil stays near $80, there's no way the Fed raises rates in September." Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School Professor of Finance and WisdomTree's Chief Economist, on CNBC Siegel's call follows this week's better than expected CPI and PPI data. Goldman Sachs has lowered its estimate for the upcoming PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, noting the modest uptick still expected is mostly due to rising portfolio management fees, not underlying inflation.

🇺🇸 BREAKING: The Federal Reserve is projected to keep interest rates unchanged in September

After this week's July CPI + PPI inflation reports, the markets no longer expect the Fed to raise rates at the September FOMC. Short term US treasury yields have dropped due to this, but longer term yields remain quite elevated as they price in inflation remaining higher for longer if the Fed doesn't take action.

HUGE: 🇺🇸 Fed will inject $16.97 BILLION into the market starting next week. Liquidity will hit the market for 3 consecutive weeks, which is good for crypto. https://t.co/FV1QBBTe7s

Gm gm fams This week has some serious catalysts lined up 🇯🇵 Japan GDP → Monday 🇺🇸 White House crypto meeting → Wednesday 🇺🇸 FOMC minutes → Wednesday 🇯🇵 Japan CPI → Friday Crypto, Fed and BOJ all in one week Should be interesting So what you all are expecting? Pump/dump👀👇

JUST IN:@GoldmanSachscalls a September Fed rate hike very unlikely, citing soft retail sales, slowing inflation and weak employment data.

Understanding the new Fed requires building a new lens for interpreting their actions So I brought on friend of the pod @biancoresearch to learn his perspective for how to read Kevin Warshs Fed Great pod, crucial for those navigating macro markets!

BULLISH: 🇺🇸 Odds of a September Fed rate hike fall to just 24%. Good for markets! https://t.co/kaAzgkeuFd

4. He thinks the Fed won't hike at all this year Everyone's betting on 2 rate hikes. He takes the other side. Warsh just spun up 5 task forces to rebuild how the Fed measures inflation, and you don't move rates while you wait on that unless there's an emergency, so he'd bet on zero hikes.

JUST IN: Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75% for the rest of 2026.$BTCis holding above $64,000.

LATEST: FOMC July meeting minutes and a White House crypto summit are both scheduled for tomorrow.

BULLISH: 🇺🇸 Fed to inject $4,243,000,000 into the economy today. https://t.co/1L33X8C0qA

美联储不出手，贝森特就要出手了。 这个长债利率，谁看谁不迷糊，都想把他打下来。 https://t.co/jwyL2PsDfs

This isn't QE, since quite some people think it is... But at least the US Treasury is acknowledging things are not going too well on the bonds market and they're trying to give a hand to the Fed (it's complicated for the Fed to cut rates if yields keep going up only).

🚨 THE FED JUST SENT ONE OF ITS MOST BEARISH WARNINGS TO MARKETS THIS YEAR. Multiple officials warned that further rate hikes may be necessary if inflation refuses to fall. Three FOMC members already voted to raise rates by 25 BPS at the July meeting. The Fed says inflation risks remain tilted higher, while some officials believe financial conditions still aren’t restrictive enough. At the same time, the Fed says stock valuations are at extremes only surpassed during the dot-com bubble. Officials also warned an AI disappointment could trigger a major stock repricing and tighter financial conditions. Hedge fund leverage is near all-time highs, while repo and prime brokerage borrowing have hit record levels. The Fed is now facing sticky inflation, extreme valuations and record leverage at the same time. This is an extremely dangerous setup for markets.

Fed July Minutes: Inflation Risks Remain Skewed to the Upside, Some Officials Backed Rate Hikes, AI Valuations and Leverage Raise Financial Stability Concerns Federal Reserve minutes from the July meeting showed that inflation remained above the 2% target, with risks still tilted to the upside. Participants cited tariffs, the Middle East conflict and strong AI-related investment as potential sources of persistent price pressure. The labor market remained broadly stable and economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. Most participants supported keeping the federal funds rate unchanged, but several favored a 25-basis-point hike. Many said further tightening could be warranted if inflation failed to ease, while some questioned whether current financial conditions were restrictive enough to bring inflation back to target. The minutes also highlighted financial-stability risks from elevated valuations and growing leverage around AI infrastructure, warning that a reassessment of the sector’s long-term profitability could trigger a broader asset-price repricing.

🐋 WHALE WATCH : Markets are heading into a big week. Monday: 🇺🇸Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant is holding an emergency press conference today at 2 PM ET detailing the U.S. economic response to Iran. Tuesday: 🇺🇸Consumer Confidence Wednesday: 🇺🇸PCE + GDP Thursday: 🇺🇸Unemployment Claims + Jackson Hole Begins Friday: 🇺🇸Fed Chair Warsh Will Speak + Payroll Changes For $BTC and crypto this can only mean one thing: volatility. Fasten your seat belts and keep an eye on Jackson Hole.