#美银预警AI债市风险

☕️ GM! Here are the most important market events over the last 24 hours: 🌍Market Overview: 🔸 The Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting for a 25 basis point HIKE, the most members pushing for an increase since September 2016. September hike odds now top 57%. 🔸 Microsoft posted $90.01 billion of fiscal fourth-quarter revenue against $87.62 billion expected, and full-year Azure revenue topped $100 billion for the first time. Azure growth accelerated to 43% from 40%. #AI 🔸 The Nasdaq closed 1.74% lower at 24,442.94, more than 10% off its record and in correction, and the Dow lost 1,153.18 points. Warsh's tough talk failed to convince the bond market, where the 30-year hit 2007 highs. 🔸 Zuckerberg raised the low end of Meta's 2026 capex range by $5 billion to $130 billion to $145 billion after free cash flow shrank 90% from a year earlier. Shares fell more than 7% after hours, down 11% on the year. 🔸 Q2 GDP slowed to a 1.5% annual rate from 2.1%, but the drag was government spending, not demand, which accelerated to 3.9%. Prices ran hot: the gross domestic purchases index jumped to 5.7% from 3.6%. 🔸 OpenAI is handing academic researchers free access to its frontier models across ChatGPT, ChatGPT Work and Codex, starting with 10,000 this summer and expanding to 100,000 through 2027. #OpenAI 🪙Crypto Updates: 🔸 XRP Ledger activated its fixCleanup3_2_0 amendment on 85.71% validator support, 30 votes for and five against, making 3.2.0 the minimum release and amendment-blocking every node still below it. #XRP 🔸 Pump.​fun's token graduation rate hit 6.7%, roughly 8x the June average, after BOOST began redirecting the 20% of migration liquidity that used to sit dead in the PumpSwap pool into automatic buybacks. 🔸 The Ethereum Foundation put security researcher pcaversaccio, co-founder of the SEAL 911 emergency response initiative, on its board for a one-year term, taking it to four. First addition after a year of exits. #Ethereum 🔸 MoonPay launched PayBox, a payment vault that lives inside Claude and ChatGPT and lets AI agents pay for things, covering Solana plus seven Ethereum-compatible chains and built on Coinbase's x402 protocol. 🔸 Blockaid counted 212 verified exploits in the first half of 2026, the highest half-year count on record, with more than $1.1 billion stolen. Compromised keys and signing infrastructure drained 74% of it. #crypto 🔸 Crypto held flat through last Thursday's $797 billion drop in US megacap tech and Korea's record two-day slide, which CoinDesk reads as thinning liquidity, not an equities reaction. BTC $64,100, ETH $1,905.

Microsoft just posted a genuinely wild quarter. $90B in revenue (18% YoY growth, blew past the $87.6B expected), and Azure crossed $100B in annual revenue for the first time ever, with growth actually accelerating to 43%. The catch? They're spending like crazy to get there. Capex up 69% to $41B, which dragged free cash flow down 23%. Stock still popped roughly 3% after hours though, investors clearly like the AI bet so far.