#Deribit期权到期与多空博弈

$BTC is back above the 200-week moving average, one of its most important support levels during a bear market. It has only lost this level once during the 2022 crypto crash. Despite macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, BTC is holding strong over $60k after a bounce from the $57,000 cycle low. Let’s see if we hold and get the historical summer pump in July-August.

Damn… $BTC just surged back above $66,900, triggering $217M in liquidations within hours. Over the past 24 hours, total crypto liquidations have reached $426M. Current leverage: - $1.52B in shorts - $10.19B in longs That’s 6.7× more longs than shorts, with liquidation risk extending all the way down to $57,000.

BTC just broke above $64K. But 165,000 traders got liquidated in the last 48 hours. $682 million wiped out. And we're about to find out why. The Fed drops its rate decision at 2pm ET today. No dot plot this meeting, guys, so we're reading tone, not data. Consensus says hold at 3.50-3.75%. But hike odds jumped to 35.8% this week from 25.7%. That's not nothing. Add in a shelved Clarity Act, an 11% Kospi crash, and $4 billion in ETF outflows in June alone, and you've got a market that's basically holding its breath. BTC is down 33% this year while the Nasdaq posted double digit gains. This isn't a market wide flight from risk. It's crypto getting singled out. Where do you think we're headed after 2:30? Relief rally or another leg down?

MARKETS: $BTC holds near $65,000 as an $800B AI stock selloff, the Magnificent Seven's worst day since April 2025, barely touched crypto. https://t.co/E1D1zMJ5Zn

July 31 Options Data 149,000 BTC options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.28, a maximum strike price of $64,000, and a notional value of $9.6 billion. 435,000 ETH options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.63, a maximum strike price of $1,850, and a notional value of $830 million.