Edgy - The DeFi Edge 🗡️@thedefiedge7H
bearishMON is already trading below its public sale price and the real supply hit hasn't even landed yet.
On November 24, 17.1B tokens will unlock (that's more than everything trading today)
Here are 4 huge unlocks happening in November:
1. $MON (Nov 24), ~$365M
This one goes to the team, investors and treasury. That's ~$365M of tokens against a ~$255M market cap, and circulating supply jumps 145% in a single day.
The weird part is the chain itself is doing fine. DeFi deposits on Monad went from about $360M in July to almost $1B now (around $690M of that is stablecoins), but you'd never know it from the chart.
2. $ZRO (Nov 19), ~$39M
LayerZero unlocks another 23.6M ZRO for core contributors and partners, about 5.9% of what's circulating.
Last time ZRO dropped about 15% the week after. If it starts sliding before the 19th I'd take that as a warning.
3. $ENA (Nov 2 and 5), ~$54M combined
Ethena has two unlocks back to back, about 266M ENA going to ecosystem incentives, the foundation, contributors and investors.
ENA's been unlocking on a schedule like this for a while now. I'd watch how it handles the 2nd before guessing at the 5th.
4. $EIGEN (Nov 30), ~$7M
36.8M EIGEN goes to investors and early contributors, roughly 3.8% of circulating supply. Last unlock it barely moved, down under 3% over the week.
So what actually decides how bad it gets?
Last round ZRO dropped 15% and EIGEN kinda shrugged it off, and from what I can tell the difference was mostly whether buyers showed up.
I'm honestly not sure where the buyers come from this month. We've got the jobs report on November 6, CPI on the 10th and Fed minutes on the 18th, and if those come in ugly it gets a lot harder.
Monad is the one I'm really watching. If it sells off into the 24th and then bounces fast after… that tells me buyers soaked up the supply, and that's when I'd start taking it seriously.
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